Bitcoin so far has been able to find support above the so-called bottom area below $6,000. But it is not enough to beat the long-term bearish bias, according to a famous cryptocurrency analyst.Crypto Thoreau, in one of its latest tweets, predicted that Bitcoin price is in for a drop towards $3,500. The analyst backed his prediction by a historical price action between early-2014 and mid-2015 in which Bitcoin price can be seen dropping 83.39 percent after forming 626 bars on the daily chart. The pattern, which looks identical to the one building these days, indicates a similar downside run after a breakdown action of 626 bars in 626 days, eventually to a point where Bitcoin will establish a nearly 83 percent drop to $3,500 by mid-2019.Image Credits: Crypto Thoreau | A Bitcoin-Volume graph indicating price action similarity.It is, of course, theory and even Crypto Thoreau admits that. The fundamental dynamics between the two timelines are poles apart. 2014 and 2015 was the year of constant switching between hypes and FUD. 2014, in particular, saw the demise of the then world’s largest crypto exchange Mt. Gox. The same year also used to witness volatile price movement owing to news as simple as merchant adoption. The sentimental trading followed suit in the next year too, with price reacting majorly to fundamental changes in the news space.Compared to those times, Bitcoin today is less volatile to mainstream news coverages and looks more stable as confirmed by the increasing institutional investments into its space. The news of a Yale endowment adding two cryptocurrency funds to its portfolio didn’t cause a $1,000-jump, nor bad comments from a renowned economist before the US Congress could crash the price to fresh lows. $6,000, the psychological support to many Bitcoin bulls, also stands tall due to its ability to withhold downtrends on multiple occasions this year.A Technical OutlookSource: TradingView.comWe are looking at five cases in which the support around $6,000 was either tested or was in plain sight ahead of a reversal. So far, the support has proven to be stronger than usual, expressing strong buying sentiment every time bears test it. Nevertheless, a large falling trendline on the top has also proven to be as strong as the support, capping gains over and over again and now pushing the price to choose between breakout and breakdown action.A breakdown action falls in line with the prediction of Crypto Thoreau. A break below $6,000 could open short positions towards $4,500 the least, if not $3,500. Nevertheless, breaking below the currently assumed bottom also mean that Bitcoin will become unprofitable to miners and to institutional investors that have entered long positions on the lows, believing they bought the dips. It also proves that bulls would want to hold the gates should the $6,000-bottom is tested.
Tron has seen a small price decline totalling -2.3% over the past 24 hours of trading. The cryptocurrency is now currently exchanging hands at a price of $0.0241 after suffering a further -4% decline over the past 7 trading days.
The excitement for Tron has been blown out of proportion this weeks as a rumour circulates that Tron is about to announce a partnership with the Chinese search engine giant known as Baidu. The rumour began when Justin Sun tweeted asking users to guess about an upcoming partnership with a company that has a value in the tens of billions.
A partnership of this magnitude will have a great impact on the TRX/USD market and the entire industry as a whole. China has long been on a rocky path with its relationship toward cryptocurrency and this could be one of the first major partnerships that scream mainstream appeal. Baidu accounts for over 66% of China’s search engine results and is often compared with that of the Google of China.
Tron is currently ranked in 11th position in terms of overall market cap across the entire industry. IT has a total market cap value of $1.58 billion after the 13 month old coins suffers a massive -37% price drop over the past 90 trading days. Tron is still trading at a value that is 90% lower than its all time high price.
Let us continue to analyse price action for TRX/USD over the short term and highlight any potential support and resistance zones.
TRX/USD – SHORT TERM – DAILY CHART
Analysing the market from the short term perspective above, we can see that the recent BTC/USD pump on Monday caused price action fro TRX/USD to rally up until meeting resistance provided by the April 2018 low priced at $0.02813. As the market approached this resistance, the bears began to step back into the market to pressure price action lower.
We can see that the resistance seen at the April 2018 low has been tested 3 times now and price action has failed each time to break above the level.
The market has since fallen off slightly as it rolled over and began to decline. If the bearish pressure persists in the market and pushes price action lower, we can expect immediate support below to be located at the short term .382 Fibonacci Retracement level (drawn in green) priced at $0.2354. Further support below this point can then be expected at the short term .5 and .618 Fibonacci Retracement levels (drawn in green) priced at $0.02211 and $0.02067, respectively.
If the bears continue to pressure price action even further lower then more support can be expected at the .786 Fibonacci Retracement level priced at $0.01863.
Alternatively, if the bulls can regather momentum at this support level and push price action higher, we can expect immediate resistance higher to be located at the April 2018 low priced at $0.02813. The resistance in this area is strong due to the 100 day moving average also being closely located within this area.
If the bulls can penetrate above the resistance at the April 2018 Low we can expect further higher resistance to be located at the short term 1.272 Fibonacci Extension level priced at $0.0311 followed by 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level priced at $0.03518.
The technical indicators within the market are largely producing neutral readings. The RSI is currently trading very close to the neutral 50 handles. If we would like to see some solid gains within this market we would need to see the RSI rise above the 50 level to indicate that the bulls are in control of the market momentum.
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A mass exodus from the most popular dollar-pegged stablecoin Tether (USDT) has led to its devaluation against peer stablecoins.USDT on Monday broke away from its historically tight link with the US Dollar to touch 85 cents across multiple crypto-exchanges. As a result, a substantial USDT volume shifted to other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, raising their price in an otherwise bearish market. Among the gainers were also other stablecoins whose per token value advanced against the dollar – as well as the Tether’s USDT.USDC, TrueUSD, GUSD among GainersTraders started to flee USDT in the wake of growing skepticism against its issuers. There were doubts about whether Tether was operating a fractional reserve to inflate the Bitcoin price artificially. But traders opted to pool their crypto funds into USDT to protect themselves against the market’s trademark volatility. The faith in Tether diminished at last on Monday amid speculation over its poor financial status and alleged BitFinex’s insolvency, an exchange whose CEO is the USDT issuer.Circle USD rising against the USD-pegAt the same time, stablecoins promising lower credit risk than USDT have shown up to 10% premium in their price against the USDT. Circle and Gemini, for instance, noted an impressive surge in their stablecoin prices against the dollar. While Gemini’s GUSD token surged as high as $1.05, Circle’s USDC established its new monthly high near $1.07, according to data available at CoinMarketCap.com.TrueUSD, stablecoin, also witnessed an increase in demand against the limited supply amid Tether’s negated price action.Bitcoinland:where a simple filthy statist buck is “worth” $1.08 on an exchange… because reasons: pic.twitter.com/ktQaaLHojb— Tim Swanson (@ofnumbers) October 15, 2018TrueUSD, Gemini and Circle are US-regulated entities and are liable to issue tokens backed by real fiat funds or face severe penalties. Tether, on the other hand, has been accused of ducking independent financial audits of its balance sheets in the past, to which it reasoned that the auditing procedures were “excruciatingly detailed.”Gemini stablecoin rising as Tether dropsIt demonstrates why a growing negative sentiment in Tether market is influencing USDT holders to fly to less risky alternatives like TrueUSD, USDC, and GUSD. Alex Kruger, in his interview to NewsBTC’s Chief Editor Joseph Young, had predicted the ongoing scenario earlier.“One should expect a great percentage of all USDT (Tether) holdings to migrate to GUSD (Gemini) and USDC (Circle),” he had said.Can Tether Reclaim $1?The USDT/USD is now undergoing a reversal action, the authenticity of which cannot be verified at the time of this writing. The tether issuer would need to settle community criticism once for all by opening their doors to independent financial auditors and make their balance sheets public. Unless that happens, one cannot look at the so-called stablecoin as a haven for safe crypto parking anymore.The recent market performance of Tether’s peers has proven that the community would jump the sides than stay in the superstition of stability.